Susuto

1 - Fails - The stories are not the same. In the first, Bill is not dying and there is no reason to expect he will anytime soon. In the second scenario, they will all die and you have choice to kill one of them or not. In the third, someone will die and you appear to have no choice in the matter. You can only reduce the number. The moral quandaries are different enough to invalidate the comparison.

2. Fails - We are physically the sum of our genetic makeup. Leaving aside the impossibility of doing what the scenario suggests, it would be a fight of genetics vs. memory. We are also mentally the sum of our experiences. The replaced Brown and Bush would not be the same person because their bodies are different and starting immediately so would their input.

3. Actually works - There is no way to prove it. We accept what our senses give us as true because to do otherwise would drive us insane. Life cannot be lived without the assumption of reality actually being as it is presented to us. In The Matrix, what proof is there that the world presented in The Matrix is actually the real one? How do they know that both the Matrix and the “real” world are not both computer constructs for machines who are busy amusing themselves with a reality within a reality?

4. Fails - Knowing that something will happen and making it happen are two different things. If I know that my child will disobey me when they are left alone, does that make me responsible for their disobedience? No. They are still responsible for their actions. My knowing it does not make them do it. I just knew that they would because I knew them. I did not make them.