Susuto

If anyone is curious about the numbers behind the rankings, it’s all available at www.atptennis.com.

Basically,

The rankings are based on a 52-week block.

Before Cincinnati started, Federer had Nadal by 300 points. Federer lost in the 3rd round, only claiming 75 ATP points for this event. The winner gets 500 points.

Because Federer won last year, he needed to win this year to not lost ground in the 52-week stretch. But because he lost, his point total is effectively down 425 points.

Because of the 52-week block, there’s almost no way Nadal won’t take the #1 spot by the end of the US Open, he’s defending against far less points.

Federer already lost 300 points from last year by taking 2nd at Wimbledon (for 700 points) *and* Nadal was boosted another 300 points by winning Wimbledon for 1000 points, making it a 600 point swing.

At the US Open 2007, Nadal lost in the 4th round for 150 points, and Federer won the tournament for 1000. Come this year, even if Federer wins, any progress beyond the 4th round for Nadal (which he is clearly favored to have as the 2nd seed) will go directly to boosting his point total, whereas Federer can only hope to not loose any ground.

W - 1000
F - 700
SF - 450
QF - 250

These are the point totals for finishing positions for the US Open, so it seems that if no more US Open Series tournaments are played until the US Open, and even if Nadal looses the next round at Cincinnati, he’d only have to make it to the semi-finals to overtake the 1 spot.